Humana Warning Prompts 10% Stock Slump, Sends Shudders Through Health Insurance Sector

Humana Inc. (HUM) on Thursday added to its previous warning that soaring medical costs and government regulations would hurt profits, saying the issue will impact its results through 2025.

The news sent its shares, and those of other health insurance providers such as UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) and CVS Health Corp. (CVS), tumbling, as Humana said rising costs were reflected across the industry.

The Medicare Advantage sector is “navigating a complex and dynamic period of change,” and the health insurance industry is “navigating significant regulatory changes while also absorbing unprecedented increases in medical cost trends,” Humana said in a statement, while also announcing a steep fourth-quarter loss.

It said the problems may “persist for an extended period or, in some cases, permanently reset the baseline.”

The downbeat assessment on the health insurance industry came as the insurer Thursday reported a fourth-quarter loss of $591 million, wider than its $71 million loss in the same period of 2022. Loss per share for the quarter was 11 cents versus $1.97 in earnings per share (EPS) year-on-year.

Humana also said it expects to have an EPS of $16 this year, noting that it assumes the higher Medicare Advantage medical costs it experienced in the fourth quarter will persist throughout the year. For the latest year, EPS was $26.09.

In addition, Humana said it no longer believes it will reach its 2025 EPS target of $37, and sees growth of $6 to $10 per share instead.

Humana explained that climbing medical costs were driven by higher-than-anticipated “inpatient utilization, primarily for the months of November and December, and a further increase in non-inpatient trends.”

Thursday’s profit warning follows the company’s slashing last week of its 2023 EPS outlook to $26.09 from the previous estimate of $28.25. The new EPS figure was also below analysts’ forecasts.  The insurer said then that it anticipated that “the higher level of medical utilization” that it experienced during the third quarter in its Medicare Advantage business would continue for the rest of the year.

Humana shares Thursday plunged to their lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. At 2 p.m. ET, its shares were down 10.7% at $359.15, marking a nearly 20% decline in the past 12 months. UnitedHealth stock was down 6% and CVS Health was almost 4% lower.