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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The IMF expects China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.6% in 2024 from around 5% last year, with weak exports and real estate problems dragging down activity.
- China’s GDP growth could fall to about 3.5% in 2028, according to the IMF’s analysis.
- China is the world’s second-largest economy and is not just a major market for companies like Nike and Apple but also where companies like Walmart source most of their products.
China’s economy is set to see growth slow to 4.6% in 2024, dragged down by the country’s subdued exports and a weak real estate sector, the International Monetary Fund said Friday.
The world’s second-largest economy, which grew around 5% last year, may only grow 3.5% in 2028, according to the IMF’s projections.
China’s weakening economy, as well as heightened competition from homegrown firms, is already taking a toll on U.S. firms. Apple (AAPL) shares fell Friday, dragged by a slump in China sales, despite announcing higher-than-forecast quarterly results late Thursday.
The country, dubbed the world’s factory, is not just a key market but also the biggest source of imports for many large firms, including retail giant Walmart (WMT).
In a separate report, the IMF cast doubt on a recovery in the country’s embattled housing market, which makes up as much as 20% of the country’s economic activity. Investment in homes may decline as much as 60% in China over the next decade, the fund said, as the population declines.
“Sales have fallen amid homebuyer concerns that developers lack sufficient financing to complete projects and that prices will decline in the future,” the IMF said.
A government crackdown on high debt levels and the slump in home sales has triggered the downfall of many real estate companies, including what was once one of the biggest, China Evergrande Group. Earlier this week, a Hong Kong court ordered the embattled property developer to liquidate after more than a year of talks between the company and creditors failed to deliver a debt restructuring plan.