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Key Takeaways
- While the Federal Reserve has projected more interest rate cuts this year, some officials are cautious as more economic data comes in.
- Investors are pricing in rate cuts at each of the next two Fed meetings, in line with the central bank’s own projections.
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said that rate cuts over the next several quarters would be “modest,” while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he was not in a “rush” to cut rates.
More interest rate cuts may be coming, but some members of the Federal Reserve are warning not to expect too much from the central bank as it moves to reduce borrowing costs over the next few months.
“Right now, I’m forecasting in some more modest cuts over the next several quarters to get to something around neutral, but it’s going to be dependent on the data,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Monday at an event at the Chippewa Falls Area Chamber of Commerce in Wisconsin.
The Fed official’s comments come as investors try to gauge how quickly the central bank will lower its influential federal funds rate, which can impact borrowing costs across the economy.
Investors seem to believe the Federal Reserve will follow through with its most recent projections. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a nearly 89% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at its next meeting in November. The tool forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
Fed Officials Still Following Inflation
Federal Reserve policymakers have appeared cautious in their approach to reducing interest rates, especially as inflation remains above the central bank’s target of 2%.
At a Mississippi Council on Economic Education event Friday, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said there was still room for several more interest rate cuts in the future, but he was “not in a rush.”.
“I don’t want us to get in a place where inflation stalls out because we haven’t been restrictive for long enough, so I’m going to be patient,” Bostic said.
‘Shocks’ Like Rising Unemployment Rate Could Force Fed to Move Faster
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan said Monday that the central bank is likely to “gradually” lower interest rates, but that much was dependent on upcoming economic reports on inflation and employment levels.
“Any number of shocks could influence what that path to normal will look like, how fast policy should move and where rates should settle,” Logan said.
In his remarks, Kashkari said a rising unemployment rate is one factor that could prompt quicker action from the Fed. Officials cited worries over the labor market when they made a half-percentage point, surprising some economists.
“If we saw real evidence that the labor market is weakening quickly, that would tell me that as one policy maker, maybe we ought to bring down our interest rate more quickly than I currently expect,” Kashkari said.