In July, the median U.S. home sale price slipped slightly from a record high of $442,389 as interest rates fell. At the same time, the number of sales reached its lowest-ever July level, according to Redfin. All evidence indicates that more Americans will continue to rent, at least for now. But where will they live?
Apartments are being constructed in the United States at a brisk pace, with more than 500,000 units expected to be completed in 2024, the first year this threshold will be reached, according to a study by RentCafe. In total, over two million new units are expected by 2028, the study found. It is unclear how many current units will be lost in that period.
The New York metro area is poised to lead the way. In the last five years, from 2019 to 2023, 116,207 new apartments were completed in the area, second only to Dallas, where 128,418 were finished. In the next five years, from 2024 to 2028, 150,327 are expected in New York, the most projected among the metros in the study. Dallas is expected to follow New York and is expected to complete 108,178 apartments by 2028, fewer by 20,240 than in the previous five-year period.
The increase in new apartments is not restricted to large metros. Youngstown, Ohio, for example, had just 191 units completed between 2019 to 2023 but is projected to complete 6,449 in the next five years. The study attributed some of the increase to demand created by an expansion of Youngstown State University. Another small metro, Sherman, Texas, built 617 new apartments in the last five years, but 4,001 are expected in the next — an increase of 3,384. This week’s chart compares the increase in units built over the last five years to what’s expected in the next five.
The study analyzed new apartment construction across 369 metro areas, focusing on buildings with 50 or more units. Metro areas with fewer than 300 units, or fewer than two such properties, were not included. The Bronx and Staten Island were excluded from New York’s totals, missing some potential growth: The City Council recently approved a rezoning plan in the Bronx that could add about 7,000 new housing units.
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