Donald Trump is projected to win the presidential election held on Nov. 5. Multiple sources, including The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, have declared Trump the winner after he captured key swing states North Carolina and Georgia, which he had lost in 2020.
The New York Times projects Trump will receive 306 electoral college votes, with a greater than 95% chance of victory. CNN has Trump “on the brink of victory” as the former president and likely president-elect gave a speech to supporters in Florida.
At the time of publication, the Associated Press has Trump on 267 electoral college votes, just three short of the 270 required to secure the presidency.
His primary opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, lagged in critical swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
While on the campaign trail, Trump made a variety of promises to the crypto community. He pledged to fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler “on day one,” promote Bitcoin (BTC) mining in the US, create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, prevent a central bank digital currency (CBDC) from being created, and commute the sentence of crypto advocate Ross Ulbright, among other things.
Because of these promises, many in the crypto industry have high hopes for the incoming presidency, while others are urging the community to be cautious and not to get their hopes up too much.
Only time will tell how much of President-elect Trump’s agenda will ultimately be enacted.
Fire Gary Gensler
Trump has pledged to remove Gensler from the SEC on his first day in office.
Gensler was appointed SEC chair by current President Joe Biden in 2021. During his tenure, he has presided over an SEC that has sued numerous popular crypto exchanges and projects.
The SEC brought enforcement actions against the largest exchange in North America, Coinbase, as well as decentralized exchange Uniswap, blockchain-based video streaming company Lbry, Web3 video game developer Immutable, and MetaMask wallet developer Consensys, among others.
In each case, the SEC has claimed that cryptocurrencies are often legally securities and that their developers must register the coins with the SEC.
Many crypto businesses and users have rejected this interpretation of securities law, and Trump has promised to get rid of Gensler because of it.
Gensler’s term ends in April 2025. At that point, Trump could replace Gensler with someone more friendly to the crypto industry. He could also remove Gensler “for cause” on day one, although whether Gensler’s actions as chair constitute “cause” is sure to be litigated.
Another scenario that could play it is for Gensler to resign, sparing Trump the need to fire him.
Free Ross Ulbricht
Information about Ross Ulbricht. Source: FreeRoss.org
Trump has also promised that he will commute the sentence of former darknet marketplace operator Ulbricht on day one, possibly allowing him to walk free.
Ulbricht was the creator of Silk Road, a website that allowed any user to sell whatever they wanted in exchange for Bitcoin, including illegal products such as unregistered guns and drugs. The Silk Road processed an estimated $230 million worth of sales in its lifetime, according to a report from Ars Technica.
Ulbright was arrested in 2013 and is currently serving two life sentences plus 40 years, without the possibility of parole, for his role in founding Silk Road. Supporters claim that his sentence is too harsh for a web designer who merely facilitated the trade of drugs and did nothing violent.
Trump could commute his sentence to time served, setting him free immediately, or simply reduce his sentence to something less than life without parole.
Support American Bitcoin mining
Trump has promised to encourage Bitcoin mining in the United States, claiming he wants “all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA.”
Although the incoming president hasn’t given details on how he will accomplish this aim, some in the crypto community have considered a win by Trump to be bullish because of this pro-mining stance.
For example, Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin financial technology company Jan3, claimed on June 13 that Trump’s pro-mining stance would “push everything ahead even more.”
Bitcoin mining is sometimes opposed by environmental groups, thanks to the perception that it has a large carbon footprint. However, a pro-mining president could use their position to prevent new environmental regulations against Bitcoin mining from being enacted.
Create a strategic Bitcoin reserve
Another crypto-related promise Trump has made is to create a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” by instructing law enforcement agencies not to sell the Bitcoin they’ve seized from criminal enterprises. Supporters of this policy claim that Bitcoin is an important reserve asset and that holding onto it will eventually help the US to pay off its national debt.
Cynthia Lummis, a US senator from Wyoming often regarded as supportive of crypto, introduced a bill to create such a reserve in July. But so far, the bill has not been passed.
Prevent a CBDC
Trump has also pledged to ensure a central bank digital currency, or a blockchain payment system run by the government, will not be created. CBDCs use blockchains similar to those used by private cryptocurrencies, except that these networks are controlled by the government.
The crypto industry is divided over whether CBDCs are good or useful, with some seeing them as an improvement over slow and cumbersome banks while others see them as dystopian systems that will eliminate privacy.
Regardless, Trump has vowed that he will prevent the US from having an official digital dollar, which at least some crypto users see as positive.
Not everyone is a believer
While Trump has made many promises to crypto users and the industry as a whole, some in the industry do not believe he will follow through with them or that they are even possible.
For example, in response to Trump’s claim that he wanted all of the remaining Bitcoin to be made in the US, Shapeshift founder Eric Vorhees stated on June 13 that this view was “absurd nationalist/protectionist nonsense, betraying both a lack of understanding of Bitcoin, and a lack of understanding of economics broadly.”
Additionally, Casa wallet founder Jameson Lopp criticized Trump’s plan for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, claiming that half of the BTC seized by law enforcement actually belongs to the Bitfinex exchange and, therefore, must be returned to it.