The U.S. 10-year Treasury rose on Tuesday as investors monitored fresh economic data after the Federal Reserve boosted already high expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed more than 2 basis points to 3.839%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury added more than 1 basis point to trade at 3.944%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said that “the time has come for policy to adjust,” bolstering expectations for a rate cut at the central bank’s next meeting. Powell declined to provide exact indications on the timing or extent of the cut, however.
“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” Powell said in his keynote address at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole.
Market participants are firmly pricing in a rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 18 meeting. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 71.5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, with 28.5% pricing in a 50-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
On the data front, figures from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index for June will be released at around 9 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Consumer confidence data for August and Richmond Fed surveys for August are both scheduled to follow slightly later in the session.