United States Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump didn’t mention crypto once in their first-ever debate on Tuesday, as Trump’s odds of clinching an election victory slid as much as 3% on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket.
The debate between Harris and Trump, held on Sept. 10 in Philadelphia, focused primarily on each presidential hopeful’s plans for the economy, abortion rights, immigration, and foreign policy.
Trump’s odds of winning the election plunged on Polymarket throughout the debate, sliding by as much as three percentage points to 49% and bringing the two presidential hopefuls neck and neck for the first time on the decentralized betting platform.
Trump (left) and Harris (right) at their first presidential debate in Philadelphia. Source: ABC News
Harris maintained her composure throughout the two-hour-long debate and repeatedly prodded Trump, who at times came across as agitated and retorted with a slew of false claims, according to data from fact-checking agency PolitiFact.
Trump’s odds of an election victory fell 3% on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
Harris victory could spell trouble for crypto
Several analysts have pinned much of the crypto market’s short-term success — at least in terms of Bitcoin’s price action — on a Trump election victory in November.
In a Sept. 9 investment note to clients, Bernstein analysts predicted that a Trump victory on Nov. 5 could see Bitcoin rally as high as $90,000 by the end of the year.
If elected, Trump has vowed to end what he calls Biden’s “war on crypto” and has made sweeping promises to back the crypto industry.
On Sept. 5, Trump said he plans to wipe out existing anti-crypto regulation and establish the United States as the “world capital of crypto.”
On the other hand, if Harris — whose official stance on crypto is still largely unknown — wins the election, analysts believe the price of Bitcoin could fall as low as $30,000.
Political spending in the election
Crypto getting no mention in the debate comes after three crypto-backed super political action committees (PACs) raised over $202 million from major crypto industry backers and spent $93.6 million to influence the 2024 elections.
The largest crypto PAC, Fairshake, has raised $177.8 million and has spent $70.8 million of it in the 2024 election cycle mostly bankrolling attacks on Democratic congressional candidates, according to OpenSecrets.
Related: Kamala Harris releases policy platform details — No mention of crypto
The debate brings betting market odds closer to national polling data, where Harris currently leads Trump by 2.7 percentage points (47.1% to 44.9%), according to a Sept. 10 FiveThirtyEight poll taken before the debate.
National polling averages for the U.S. presidential election. Source: FiveThirtyEight
Gallup polls from May show crypto isn’t at the top of American voters’ minds, with most ranking the economy, inflation, poor governance, and immigration as key issues.
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