Trump Media Stock Has Had a Wild Week

The last days of the U.S. presidential campaign have been plenty dramatic for the candidates–and for the stock linked with their political—and, partly, personal—fortunes. 

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), majority owned by former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, were recently down 3% to roughly $34. They’ve this week risen as high as 40% above last Friday’s close near $39 and slid nearly 15% below it. That’s meant big swings in the market value of Trump’s majority stake, which nevertheless is worth billions of dollars.

And that’s on little in the way of actual news about the company, which operates the Truth Social platform. Instead, traders have seized on the story as a way to wager the outcome of the presidential election, seen broadly as a race between Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Polls generally point toward a close contest ahead of Election Day. On some prediction markets, speculators seem to more strongly believe in the likelihood of a Trump win: On Polymarket, for example, traders have generally backed a more-than-60% likelihood of a Trump victory for most of this week; those odds were a bit lower on some other platforms. (Here’s Investopedia’s guide to elections betting,)

Meanwhile, Trump Media shares have moved dramatically, with trading in the stock subjected to volatility-based halts multiple times this week. At one point, the shares traded at levels not seen since the high-flying days after their debut on public markets earlier this year. 

For now, they’re back around July levels after climbing off October lows.