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Key Takeaways
- A trust fund for Social Security is on track to run out by 2034, which would result in smaller checks for beneficiaries.
- Tax revenue that funds the program is less than the Social Security benefits paid out.
- Both major presidential candidates have pledged to leave benefits intact.
Social Security checks will be much smaller in 10 years unless Congress changes something about how the program works.
That’s according to a projection released this week by the Congressional Budget Office, which estimated a key Social Security trust fund will run dry in 2034. The fund—which serves as a financial cushion for the program—is being drained because Social Security currently pays out more in benefits than it receives in payroll tax revenue.
The situation will likely worsen in the future as the population ages, the nonpartisan research group said. When the trust fund runs out, the program will only be able to pay benefits based on what it takes in, which would shrink monthly checks by 23%.
Congressional Budget Office
The latest estimate is actually a bit rosier than the group’s projections last year, which had the funds running out in 2032.
The report highlighted the long-term problems threatening the Social Security program, an essential social safety net against poverty among seniors. Stabilizing it could require either cutting payouts or raising taxes, both politically unpopular options.
In the 2024 presidential election, Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both committed to leaving benefits intact.