Crypto predictions platform Polymarket is reportedly checking to ensure whales placing big bets on the United States presidential election are based overseas, as US users are banned from the platform.
“Polymarket is in the process of re-checking the details of users of its platform, particularly those making large wagers, to ensure compliance with its rules,” a report from Bloomberg said on Oct. 22, citing a person familiar with the matter.
While Polymarket has systems in place to block US users from its website, concerns have been raised that US residents may be circumventing the blockage via virtual private networks — prompting Polymarket to do more due diligence.
It follows speculation that a handful of large whales are skewing the odds for the November US presidential election in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.
Almost $2.3 billion in bets have been placed in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which currently favors Trump (63.7%) over Vice President Kamala Harris (36.2%).
Live odds of the Polymarket’s US presidential election market. Source: Polymarket
The whereabouts of Polymarket whale “Fredi9999” have attracted considerable attention, as more than $20 million has been placed on Republican outcomes so far.
Trump also leads Harris on competitor prediction platform Kalshi at 60%.
Related: Kalshi election betting contracts multiply after court win
Still, Trump’s lead in the crypto prediction markets isn’t currently reflected in most voter polls, including a Reuters poll with Harris in front at 46% to 43%.
In response to Polymarket media scrutiny, Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour said Polymarket’s results are accurate and not caused by inorganic manipulation.
“The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump, with the median bet for Harris coming in at $85 compared with Trump’s $58.”
Source: Steve Hanke
Billionaire and Polymarket investor Mark Cuban said most of the bets placed on Polymarket’s US election market are coming from overseas — and as a result, are not a true reflection of eligible voter sentiment.
“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything,” Cuban said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box on Oct. 21.
Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with the United States commodities regulator back in January 2022 for offering more than 900 event-based binary options event markets without obtaining registration.
In a different case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission partially lost a lawsuit it filed against Kalshi in September. The court ruled that the commodities regulator had “exceeded its statutory authority” by ordering the US-based entity to suspend its election markets.
Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky