American computer scientist Nick Szabo is now the frontrunner on Polymarket to be named Satoshi Nakamoto in HBO’s upcoming documentary that claims to name Bitcon’s creator, overtaking cryptographer Len Sassaman.
Polymarket betters have put 27.9% odds of Szabo, inventor of the failed crypto network Bit Gold, as the one HBO’s Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery will name as Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, followed by Sassaman at 14% then Blockstream CEO Adam Back at 4.3%
Sassaman initially led with as high as 68% odds shortly after the betting platform opened the market on Oct. 4.
Favourites to be identified as HBO’s Satoshi Nakamoto reveal. Source: Polymarket
But those odds dropped as the documentary’s producer Cullen Hoback told CNN on Oct. 7 that he confronted who he thinks is the real Satoshi Nakamoto in person, which would likely rule Sassaman out as he died in 2011.
“We make a strong case […] and I think their reaction is in some ways more telling than even the evidence itself.”
“It’s important for the public to have a sense of who [Satoshi] might be, particularly if they’re still involved,” Hoback added.
Sassaman’s widow, Meredith Patterson, also told DL News on Oct. 8 that HBO did not approach her for the documentary.
Hoback’s claimed confrontation with his Nakamoto pick would also rule out Hal Finney — an American software developer who received the first Bitcoin transaction from Nakamoto who passed in 2014. Finney has 2.7% odds on Polymarket.
Jailed software programmer Paul Le Roux boasts 2.8% odds, while billionaire Elon Musk, former Nakamoto claimant Craig Wright, and other once-deemed Satoshi’s Dorian Nakamoto and David Kleiman have slim odds.
Polymarket’s “Other/Multiple” option currently boasts the highest odds at 37%.
Bit Gold, the network from Polymarket’s new Nakamoto frontrunner Szabo, never launched. Still, it was widely considered a precursor and influence to Bitcoin as it contained a peer-to-peer network, proof-of-work mining and cryptography concepts that were later built on Bitcoin.
Related: ‘I’ve moved on to other things’ — Satoshi Nakamoto’s final email revisited after 13 years
The links have led many to believe Szabo is Nakamoto, but he has refuted claims that he invented Bitcoin.
Hoback confirmed in an Oct. 5 X post that his documentary will “land on a specific name” — a possible giveaway that he thinks Bitcoin was launched by one person.
Source: Cullen Hoback
HBO’s documentary is set to air at 2:00 am UTC on Oct. 9.