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More Migration, Less ‘Tough’ Border Policy

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Kamala Harris and her media allies are promising a “tough” border security policy — but her new economic plan reveals her support for a loose border policy of more mass migration.

Friday’s New York Times headline declares “Harris Heads to the Border, Trying to Project Toughness Against Trump,” so mirroring many other media claims of promised “tough” policies.

But three days earlier, Harris released an economic plan that assumes a loose border inflow of low-wage migrant workers, government-aided migrant consumers, and room-sharing migrant renters. The policy would continue President Joe Biden’s “Bidenomics” policy that has radically shifted the nation’s economy away from younger Americans and toward his alliance of older investors, employers, and migrants.

The 82-page plan was scrubbed to remove mention of migrants or immigration. However, it touts economic forecasts from allies which predict she will continue high migration rates, and it also includes footnotes showing that illegal migrants will be welcomed by government agencies.

On page six, the Harris plan boasts that “Experts Find That Vice President Harris’s New Way Forward Is Better for Americans and the Economy,” and touts a report by Goldman-Sachs:

Goldman Sachs estimates the biggest boost to the U.S. economy from a Vice President Harris win. They estimate that job growth will be higher and inflation lower than if Donald Trump is elected. A Harris victory would lead to between 10,000 and 30,000 more new jobs per month than if Trump is elected.

But those extra jobs will be held by migrants, not better-paid Americans, according to the Goldman Sach forecast.

The Goldman forecast said, “We estimate that the contribution from immigration to labor force growth would be about 30,000 per month higher if Vice President Harris is elected than in the Republican sweep scenario,” adding:

If Harris wins, we expect that net immigration will continue [at] 1.5mn [million] per year, somewhat above the pre-pandemic trend of 1mn [legal immigrants]. If Trump wins with divided government, we expect net immigration will fall to 1.25mn. If Republicans sweep, Congress could increase enforcement resources, and we expect net immigration would fall to 0.75mn.

The Harris plan also cites an August forecast by pro-Democrat Wall Street analyst Mark Zandi at Moody’s Analytics, saying: “An analysis by Moody’s Analytics shows that, under a Harris presidency, more than a million new jobs would be added to the economy and household disposable income would rise more than under a Trump presidency.”

But Zandi’s forecast assumes a continuation of the high-migration economic policies set by Mayorkas, saying:

We also expect Harris to propose reforms much like those in the immigration bill President Biden delivered to Congress early in his term, which included pathways for more undocumented immigrants and individuals protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy to apply for and obtain legal status and citizenship.

The 2021 Biden bill would have flooded the economy with millions of white-collar and blue-collar migrants. That population shock would have suppressed wages, shrunk productivity, spiked inflation, and boosted investors’ returns on consumer retailing and real estate.

The Moody’s forecast admits that Donald Trump’s promises to curb migration will raise Americans’ wages:

Trump’s proposed immigration enforcement measures, including more restrictive immigration policies and mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants, quickly cause a significant tightening in the already tight job market, particularly in industries such as agriculture, construction, leisure and hospitality, and retailing, where immigrant workers are more prevalent (see Chart 5). The [Mayorkas] surge in immigration across the southern border since the pandemic reopening has presented many challenges to communities across the nation (see Chart 6), but the benefit has been to significantly increase labor supply and help ease wage and price pressures. This in turn has forestalled even more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and thus a possible recession. Reversing these immigration flows as Trump is proposing will quickly result in a tighter job market and foment wage and price pressures with immigrant-heavy industries taking the greatest hit (see Chart 7).

Harris’s 82-page plan also includes many spending and regulation programs to offset the predictable pocketbook damage caused by her investor-backed, mass-migration economic strategy.

For example, it offers to raise minimum wages and to grant federal loans to Americans — and to migrants — who cannot afford to buy homes in a housing market inflated by the arrival of 10 million migrants since 2021. This big-government complement to mass migration would be a boon for the many progressives who hold or seek jobs in federal agencies and government-funded non-profits.

The plan mentions just two proposals to raise the workplace productivity that allows ordinary Americans to get paid more for doing more work each day. It offers more subsidized child care for mothers and a tax increase “on corporate stock buybacks to encourage businesses to invest in growth and productivity.” However, the plan quietly ignores the rival strategy of boosting workplace productivity by reducing the population of migrants.

The fine print in Harris’s plan also waives the critical distinction between Americans and illegal migrants.

For example, Footnote 103 links to a September 19, 2024 “Fact Sheet ” from the White House, titled “President Biden and Vice President Harris Are Delivering for Latino Communities.” The document says Biden has “Proposed a rule to expand TRIO college access programs to Dreamers and others, which would allow an estimated 50,000 more students each year to access Federal college preparation services and programs, such as counseling and tutoring, and thousands more to attend college.”

On page 60, the Harris plan promises more “Workforce Hubs” to help train workers for jobs:



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