As the 2024 election draws closer, Vice President Kamala Harris has flipped four out of the six swing states on Polymarket, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and, most recently Nevada.
The Vice President’s lead is widest in Michigan — where her odds are 66% — followed by Wisconsin at 58% and razor-thin margins in Pennsylvania and Nevada at 52% and 51%, respectively.
Harris’ odds of victory in the 2024 Presidential election on the prediction market have shot up to 52% compared to Trump’s 47% — a solid 5-point lead.
All six swing-states and the popular vote odds. Source: Polymarket.
Trump’s odds fall after debate and token launch
Former President Trump dominated the Polymakret betting odds early on during the race. Still, the margins have considerably narrowed since that time, with the race now reflecting a toss-up between the two candidates.
Election margins narrow. Source: Polymarket.
Trump’s odds on the prediction platform slid by as much as 3% during the first debate with Harris due to what was perceived as poor performance but managed to recover shortly following the televised event — tying up the odds between Trump and Harris.
The 2024 Republican candidate also reportedly lost sway with some crypto voters after the former President announced a token launch for his decentralized finance project World Liberty Financial. While some viewed the development as positive and said it did not affect their vote, other pro-crypto voters found the token launch distasteful and characterized it as a grift.
Related: Kamala Harris’ campaign isn’t directly accepting crypto — a Super PAC is
Harris still doesn’t have a stated policy position on crypto
Harris’ campaign released its policy platform in early September 2024 but did not mention crypto in the lengthy policy outline. However, the Harris-Walz Presidential campaign included a slew of policy proposals that would increase government spending, including strengthening social security and entitlement programs, student loan debt relief, and a $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers.
Investors, speculators, and industry executives in the crypto space have been closely involved in this election cycle — hoping to prop up perceived pro-crypto candidates through public pressure campaigns, community outreach, and political donations.
Current national election odds and map. Source: Polymarket.
Current market sentiment believes a Trump Presidency would be positive for crypto prices and a Harris Presidency negative for prices. However, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered — a cross-border bank — believes that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 regardless of the election outcome.
Magazine: Crypto voters are already disrupting the 2024 election — and it’s set to continue