Prediction marketplace Kalshi has rolled out more markets for betting on United States political events in a bid to keep engagement high after the Nov. 5 presidential election.
The contracts cover outcomes ranging from how president-elect Donald Trump will staff his administration to whether he will be impeached during his presidency, according to regulatory filings with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Bettors flocked to political prediction platforms ahead of the US elections, with betting volumes tied to the presidential race nearing $4 billion as of election day on Nov. 5, according to a Cointelegraph analysis.
Kalshi betting markets. Source: CFTC
Related: US presidential race bets near $4B on election day
Web3-native Polymarket was the venue of choice for bettors, garnering $3.3 billion in presidential betting volume, according to Polymarket’s website.
But Kalshi, a US-based derivatives exchange, quickly gained traction after launching political event contracts on Oct. 7 following a landmark court win.
Its flagship market for betting on the US presidential election surpassed $250 million in trading volume as of Nov. 5.
On Oct. 28, Kalshi started taking deposits in USD Coin (USDC), a popular stablecoin, in a bid to woo crypto-native users.
The prediction marketplace has also added contracts for betting on outcomes of elections outside of the US. They include bets on 2025 races in Canada and Ireland, CFTC filings showed.
Kalshi’s founder citing Trump’s victory odds as votes came in. Source: Tarek Mansour
In September, Kalshi prevailed against the CFTC in a lawsuit challenging the regulator’s decision to bar Kalshi from listing political event contracts.
It marked the first time an election prediction market was permitted to operate in the US and paved the way for rival platforms to enter the fray.
On Oct. 28, cryptocurrency and stock trading platform Robinhood introduced contracts for certain users to bet on the outcome of the presidential election.
Interactive Brokers also launched election betting markets in October.
The CFTC said the district court judge overseeing Kalshi’s lawsuit “erred at every turn” when it allowed the platform to list and trade election odds.
The agency said prediction markets such as Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.
Political betting platforms, including Kalshi, consistently ascribed favorable odds to a Trump win.
On Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning hovered around 58% on Nov. 5 before polls closed. Harris conceded the presidency to Trump on Nov. 6.
Magazine: Saylor falls for fake Trump news, Kraken restructures, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 27 – Nov. 2