A federal judge has issued a temporary administrative stay of a decision overturning an order allowing prediction market Kalshi to list bets for the United States election.
In a minute order posted to the docket in the US District Court for the District of Columbia on Sept. 9, Judge Jia Cobb said the court would hold a hearing on Sept. 12 to address competing motions filed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Kalshi. Judge Cobb temporarily stayed an earlier decision to overturn a previous order halting Kalshi’s election markets in response to a request from the CFTC.
“This Order does not represent a ruling on the merits of [the CFTC’s] motion for a stay but instead grants a temporary administrative stay of three days until the conclusion of the upcoming hearing,” said the docket.
Related: US prediction market Kalshi to take bets on Bitcoin and Ether
The case, filed by Kalshi in November 2023, challenges the CFTC, barring the prediction market platform from listing bets based on the outcome of US elections, such as which political party could control the House of Representatives and Senate in 2025. On Sept. 6, Judge Cobb issued a decision allowing the platform to list such contracts, but she stayed that order following an emergency motion from the CFTC.
Source: Kalshi
Challenging election integrity?
Betting on the outcome of elections is a controversial practice in the US. The CFTC has argued that allowing gambling on such contracts could disrupt markets and “poses threats to election integrity and the perception of election integrity.” For example, if the odds of one candidate winning appear greater than another, it could influence how someone chooses to vote or whether they would at all.
“One purpose of the Commodity Exchange Act is preventing disruptions to market integrity,” argued the CFTC. “Were the trading to commence in the election contracts and then the Commission received a stay pending appeal, this would be a disruptive market event. Preserving the status quo for a short administrative period would thus protect that public interest.”
Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, lists many contracts based on whether Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will carry individual states or win the presidential election outright. The platform shows Trump with a six-point lead over Harris, despite many national polls from September showing the candidates neck and neck.
Magazine: Help! My parents are addicted to Pi Network crypto tapper