Jackson Hole Symposium Starts Today—What Fed Watchers Are Looking For

For the 47th year, economists and central bankers descend on Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Thursday as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual economic symposium.

The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will run through Saturday. During that time, the estimated 120 international participants will discuss the theme of “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” The topic is particularly salient for U.S. central bankers, as Federal Reserve officials are monitoring economic data to help determine their next policy steps.

The Federal Reserve has held its influential fed funds rate at a two-decade high for more than a year in an effort to discourage borrowing and, in turn, quash inflation. As inflation has moved closer to the Fed’s annual goal of 2%, the labor market has weakened and fears of a recession have reignited.

Committee Members Hesitant to Commit

As a result, central bankers have turned their attention to the jobs side of their dual mandate. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its interest rates at its next meeting in September.

Like many of his colleagues, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid told CNBC in an interview this week, opening the symposium, that he would let the data lead his decisions and would not commit to a rate cut timeline.

“I have learned that there’s a perfection of how the labor market works relative to the inflation numbers. There’s a healthy friction in the two,” Schmid said. “I still believe quite strongly that we really need to trend this inflation number toward 2%; it has to be sustainable. Having the labor market cool some is helping that, but there’s still work to do.”

Investors Looking to Powell For Further Explanation

Committee members’ reluctance to provide a specific timing of rate cuts has only further piqued investor interest in what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say at the event on Friday morning.

Goldman Sachs analysts said Powell’s remarks from Jackson Hole have affected markets in the past. However, analysts have noted that since a rate cut has already been priced into the market, Powell’s comments likely won’t be as impactful this year.

Economists don’t expect Powell to confirm that the central bank will cut rates in September. Rather, they expect him to largely echo his remarks delivered in a press conference following the Fed’s last meeting in July with a few updates.

“We expect Powell to express a bit more confidence in the inflation outlook and to put a bit more emphasis on downside risks in the labor market than in his press conference after the July FOMC meeting,” wrote Goldman analysts.