How Has The Economy Grown Before Previous Elections?

With the presidential election less than a week away, voters will get a few last pieces of economic data this week before election day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.

According to a Pew Research poll, the economy is the top concern for voters, as 81% said it was the most important issue for them as they head to the polls.

While the stock market has been on a tear in 2024, economists said voters often pay attention to other metrics when assessing the health of the economy. 

“The real economy tends to offer better signals than the financial markets about how elections will pan out. Broad economic indicators, including income, employment, GDP growth, and consumption, matter more than market measures such as equity prices,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa.

Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measurement of the goods and services sold in the economy. It showed that the economy grew at 2.8% from July through September. GDP grew a little slower than some economists had anticipated but was still at a historically strong level.

Here’s how third-quarter GDP looked heading into previous elections.

Biden Won Amid Pandemic Economic Shocks

President Joe Biden won the election in 20202 when the third-quarter GDP was 35.2%. The number was abnormally high as the economy bounced back from a second-quarter GDP of negative 28.1%, caused by the pandemic-era lockdowns.

Trump Was Victorious Amid A Growing Economy

When former President Donald Trump won the 2016 election, GDP growth was 2.9% in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter. That was close to the all-time median GDP, which was 3.1% between 1947 when the government began tracking GDP, and Wednesday.

Romney Couldn’t Take Advantage of Slow Economy

In 2012, Republican candidate Mitt Romney had the advantage of a slow economy, with third-quarter GDP coming in at 0.6% after declining in the prior three quarters. But despite the downturn, Romney couldn’t unseat then-President Barack Obama.

Obama faced a slowing economy when he won reelection, and economists said it generally takes a steep economic downturn to sway public opinion away from an incumbent.

“First-term incumbency typically provides an advantage—unless there’s a recession during or just before the election. When there is no recession, the incumbent has always won in the post-World War II era,” Phillips and Krupa wrote. 

Obama Won As the Economy Buckled Under the Financial Crisis

Obama’s run for president came amid the 2008 financial crisis when a downturn in the housing market undercut the stability of the economy. In the third quarter of 2008, the economy began to falter, contracting by 2.1%. 

Bush Rode Strong Economy to Re-Election

In 2004, former President George W. Bush won re-election in part thanks to a strong economy, which produced 3.8% growth in the third quarter. Second-quarter GDP in 2004 was also strong at 3.1%.

Bush Topped Gore as Economy Sputtered

Bush first won the election in 2000, and a sagging economy may have helped put him over the top in a close election against Democratic candidate Al Gore. Voters faced economic growth of just 0.4% in the third quarter of 2000, which dropped sharply from the 7.5% growth it registered in the prior quarter.