Here Is How Unemployment Factored Into Past Elections And What It Could Mean For 2024

While the economy is a top issue in this election, one thing voters aren’t too worried about is unemployment, even though it has played a bigger part in past elections. 

A Gallup poll showed that while 43% of people cited economic issues as their top concern, just 2% specifically cited unemployment. One reason may be that unemployment has been relatively low, especially compared to historical levels. The 4.1% unemployment rate for October 2024 is the lowest going into a presidential election in more than two decades.

However, the unemployment rate has played a bigger role in past elections, as voters have faced notably higher rates. Here’s how labor market measurements have impacted past presidential elections.

Biden Won Amid Pandemic Unemployment Spike

President Joe Biden won the 2020 election amid runaway inflation at the height of the economic downturn stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.

In April 2020, the unemployment rate hit 14.8%, the highest recorded rate in more than 70 years. By election day, voters were looking at an October unemployment rate of 6.8%, the highest election-season unemployment rate in eight years.

Trump Won As Unemployment Trended Lower

Former President Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election against a backdrop of a 4.9% unemployment rate in October. The jobless rate that year mostly fluctuated in that range but was lower than in recent years as the job market recovered from the shocks following the 2008 financial crisis.

Obama Won Despite Persistent Unemployment

President Barack Obama won reelection in 2012 against one of the highest unemployment rates voters have ever faced on election day, as a quarter of voters in one poll said it was their top issue.

Obama won the presidency for the first time in 2008 when unemployment ascended to 6.5% in October 2008, steadily rising as the economy worsened. After peaking at 10.0% in 2009, the unemployment rate was 7.8% when he was reelected in October 2012.

Bush Won Reelection Despite Unemployment Rising In His Term

Former President George W. Bush won reelection in 2004 with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, worse than the 3.9% unemployment rate when he was elected four years earlier. While the economy is often a top issue for voters, in the 2004 election, voters cited the U.S. war in Iraq as their top issue, according to a Gallup Survey.

High Unemployment Has Punished Past Incumbents

History has shown that a high unemployment rate can impact presidential elections. Former President George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid in 1992 when unemployment was at 7.3%, nearly two percentage points higher than when he took office. 

Similarly, a 7.5% unemployment rate in 1980 helped sink former President Jimmy Carter’s reelection campaign. He had won four years earlier when the unemployment rate was slightly higher, and a third of voters in one poll cited it as their top issue.

Ronald Reagan was one former president who bucked that trend, winning reelection in 1984 when unemployment was at 7.4%, only marginally lower than when he took office, and coming after unemployment had been above 10% two years earlier.