Goldman Sachs Says a Recession Is Less Likely Given Strong Jobs Data

A stronger-than-expected September jobs report has made a U.S. recession less likely, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote.

The bank on Sunday cut its 12-month recession odds to 15%, a level it calls the “unconditional long-term average.” The odds previously were raised above 15% when the unemployment rate rose above 4.2% in July. 

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, an acceleration from the upwardly revised 159,000 in August and the most since March, while the unemployment rate edged down to below 4.1% from 4.2%. 

A declining unemployment rate matters because it avoids triggering the conditions of the “Sahm Rule,” an early stage recession indicator that is signaled when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is half-percentage point or more above the lowest three-month moving average unemployment rate over the previous 12 months.

“The data have spoken,” Goldman analysts wrote. “…The upshot is that the fundamental upward pressure on the unemployment rate may have ended via a combination of stronger labor demand growth and weaker labor supply growth (because of slowing immigration).”

Goldman Raises S&P 500 Growth Forecasts

Goldman also recently raised its forecasts for the S&P 500 index. The bank lifted its three-month target to 6,000 points from 5,600 and its 12-month target to 6,300 from 6,000. The targets would mean growth of 4.3% and 9.5%, respectively, from the S&P 500’s Friday closing level of 5,751.