One of the users behind Polymarket accounts making major bets for Republican Donald Trump to win the 2024 United States presidential election reportedly said he was only interested in making money, not influencing politics.
According to a Nov. 1 report, Wall Street Journal reporters tracked down a French national responsible for setting up Polymarket accounts under Fredi9999 Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. The accounts, reportedly controlled by one man going by “Théo,” have placed roughly $38 million in bets favoring Trump in the 2024 elections.
At the time of publication, Polymarket reported roughly $2.9 billion in bets for either Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris to win in 2024, with the Republican candidate favored at 60.3%. These odds contrasted with many national polls in the US, which put both presidential candidates in a virtual dead heat with each other before Election Day on Nov. 5.
Source: Polymarket
“I have absolutely no political agenda,” said Theo, according to WSJ reporters. He added that his only intent on Polymarket was “just making money.”
Related: Polymarket presidential election odds rife with wash trading — report
Unlike prediction platforms like Kalshi, which has offered US-based users the opportunity to bet on election outcomes after winning in court against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is exclusively for users outside the United States. This means that non-US residents willing to place millions of dollars into the platform can move the odds in their favor, effectively manipulating what many users see as an extension of polling.
Four days until the US Election
Théo’s accounts hold roughly $7 million in shares betting Trump will win the US popular vote, $27 million that Trump will win the election through the Electoral College vote, $3.4 million that Harris will lose the popular vote, and roughly $800,000 that Harris will lose the presidential election. This could mean a major payday in the event of a Trump victory.
Many US states end early voting on Nov. 1, with some carrying over through Election Day, but the results of the presidential election — expected to be exceptionally close — may not be announced for days following polls closing on Nov. 5. Vice President Harris made what many called a ‘closing argument’ speech in Washington, DC on Oct. 29, but has largely not mentioned digital assets as her 2024 campaign draws to an end.
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