Fed Officials Still Uncertain About Rate Cuts Despite Inflation Improvements

Federal Reserve officials said they were pleased with the recent drop in inflation, but it wasn’t enough to make them feel more certain about the direction of the U.S. economy.

After last week’s Federal Reserve decision to keep interest rates at their 23-year-high level, several officials commented Tuesday about their expectations for the path of interest rates this year.

Central bankers highlighted the progress in their fight against inflation which was detailed in the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. However, most said they need to see inflation move more sustainably toward the annual 2% rate the Fed officials have targeted.

Barkin, Musalem Still Need More Data

In an interview with MNI, Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin wouldn’t offer any forecast of whether the central bank would cut interest rates this year. Barkin said it was “hard to know” if inflation was fully on the way back to the Fed’s target, despite recent improvement in readings.

“We are clearly on the backside of inflation. That’s been helped in part by restrictive monetary policy, that’s been helped in part by supply chain challenges being resolved and the labor market coming back into better balance,” Barkin said.

Similarly, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said despite interest rates being at elevated levels, there were several indications that rates may not be “restrictive” enough. Recent inflation data still showed that consumers were only now becoming more sensitive to price increases, he said.

“I am hopeful this could mark a resumption of progress toward 2% inflation,” Musalem said. “However, it takes more than one data point to establish a trend.”

Musalem said he expected it to take “months, and more likely quarters” of improved inflation readings before he would feel comfortable lowering interest rates. In fact, he said in the unlikely event that inflation got “stuck” above 2%, the Fed could raise rates again. 

Collins, Goolsbee See Improvements, But Uncertainty High

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said progress on inflation was “encouraging,” but it showed that it could take longer than previously thought to bring down inflation.

“Uncertainty remains high—and the volatility of monthly data remains elevated, including for inflation,” Collins said in remarks to a Massachusetts audience. “We should not overreact to a month or two of promising news, just as it was not appropriate to take too much signal from the disappointing data at the beginning of this year.”

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said supply chain issues were the main driver of the inflation spike of 2022 and improvements in logistics have helped cool price pressures, including in the latest CPI report.

“It was an excellent inflation number after a few months of less excellent numbers, so hopefully we’ll see more like that,” Goolsbee said.

Kugler Cautions on Pace of Rate Cuts

At an event at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said it could be appropriate to begin making rate cuts later this year if data continued to show slowing price increases. However, the pace at which the Fed moves will depend on what is prompting it to act, she said.

“It will depend very much on if we’re cutting because we see rapid disinflation or because we see some deterioration in the labor market,” Kugler said. “If it’s the latter reason, it may make sense to go slow. It will very much depend on how the economic situation evolves.”