EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY Prices and Analysis
- Will the ECB outline its interest rate cut timetable?
- US NFPs set to give EUR/USD a volatility boost.
Download our complimentary Q1 Euro Technical and Fundamental Forecasts
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Get Your Free EUR Forecast
The economic calendar has a handful of high-importance releases and events next week with the two standouts, the ECB policy meeting and US Nonfarm Payrolls likely to gather the most interest. The ECB will keep all policy settings unchanged but may hint when rate cuts are expected to start. Financial markets are pricing in the first 25 basis point ECB rate cut at the June meeting and it will be interesting to note if ECB President Lagarde, or any of the other ECB voting members, push back against this.
On Friday the latest US Jobs Report will be released with market forecast of +190k. Last month’s report saw a blockbuster 353k new jobs announced and if history is any guide, last month’s number is likely to be revised lower.
For all market-moving economic data and events, see the real-time DailyFX Economic Calendar
EUR/USD is currently trading around the 200-day simple moving average, and next week’s releases and events are likely to help the pair make a more decisive move. Support for the pair is seen between 1.0787 to 1.0800 – this week’s lows, the 20-day sma, and an old swing high – and if this breaks then the February 14th multi-month low at 1.0695 may come into play. A clean break above the 200-day sma will bring a cluster of recent highs, the 50-day sma, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level all around the 1.0850/60 level back into focus.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
EUR/GBP has nudged higher all week and now changes hands around 0.8564 and back above the 20-day sma. This week’s move higher has bought a cluster of recent highs – all the way up to 0.8578 and the 50-day sma at 0.8588 back into focus. Above here, the 200-day sma at 0.8610 and a cluster of early-mid January highs around 0.8620 should be noted.
EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart
Retail trader data shows 67.32% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.06 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.47% lower than yesterday and 18.20% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.69% lower than yesterday and 16.76% higher than last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/GBPprices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/GBP trading bias.
See how retail trade data affects a wide range of tradeable assets.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -8% | 0% | -5% |
| Weekly | -19% | 27% | -8% |
The Japanese Yen remains under the influence of the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance for now as traders monitor language from the two official institutions. In contrast to the ECB, traders are looking for any hints as to when the Bank of Japan will begin to raise rates after keeping them at ultra-low levels for years.
Japanese Yen Grabs a Bid, Emboldened by Bank of Japan Talk
EUR/JPY will also be under the Euro’s influence next week and the outlook looks choppy for the pair. The recent run higher from the February 7th low looks broken and the 20-day sma at 161.70 looks vulnerable. Below here, the 161 zone comes into focus ahead of the 50-day sma and big support around 160.00. The February 26th high at 163.72 should cap any break higher.
EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart
All Charts via TradingView
What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.