Contrary to wider belief, an analyst argues Ether has a slim chance of hitting new all-time highs by the end of 2024, as it has struggled to build a strong narrative and keep up with the appeal of tech stocks.
However, several traders are adamant a price spike is just around the corner.
“Right now, Ethereum is struggling with a lack of a strong narrative to drive its price, especially compared to other assets,” crypto derivatives platform Derive founder and former Wall Street trader Nick Forster told Cointelegraph.
Spot Ether ETFs returns not as lucrative for Wall Street
The launch of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETF) on July 23 may have drawn more “Wall Street attention” to the asset, but its also put Ether in direct competition with more lucrative technology stocks that are “delivering better revenue and multiples,” Forster explained.
Since Jan. 1, the underlying asset Ethereum is up 0.98%, currently trading at $2,376, according to CoinMarketCap data. Meanwhile several leading tech stocks have seen far greater returns over the same period.
Ethereum printed a price of $2,282 on Jan. 1. Source: CoinMarketCap
Nvidia (NVDA) is up 122.57% trading at $107.21 and Meta Platforms (META) is up 49.26% trading at $516.86, according to Google Finance data.
He believes that “it’s possible, but not highly likely” that Ether will break its current all-time high of $4,878 by the end of 2024.
“Options markets give it around a 10 percent chance,” he explained, noting that three major events “need to align” for it to happen.
These include Donald Trump winning the United States presidential election in November, the Federal Reserve making “aggressive rate cuts” to boost liquidity, and a “broader increase’ in global financial liquidity.
However, crypto trader Zen believes that a rate cut alone might not be enough. If it falls short of market expectations, it could lead to a bearish reaction.
“Be careful here. Feds cutting rates by 50 is a new rumor. Market is adjusting prices for that scenario. So 25 bps rate cut can become bearish news,” Zen wrote in a Sept. 4 X post.
US election may be a significant event for Ethereum
However, Forster claimed that the election alone could be the “most significant event” in Ethereum’s history, even more so than the approval of the ETF.
“There’s an extra bump of volatility implied around the election, with a potential 10-15% move on that day,” he added.
Related: Why is Ethereum (ETH) price underperforming compared to wider crypto market?
Forster pointed out that traders are expecting “more significant price swings” than what the asset has been printing in the near term.
“Generally, Ethereum has seen daily moves of around 2.5-3 percent, but the market is now pricing in daily moves closer to 3.5%,” he explained.
Meanwhile, pseudonymous crypto trader Titan of Crypto opined in an Sept. 5 X post that “an upward move seems just around the corner.”
Crypto trader Titan of Crypto believes all the signs are pointing to upward momentum for Ethereum. Source: Titan of Crypto
They explained that when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — measures the speed and change of price movements to identify overbought or oversold conditions — is “in or near oversold territory” on the three day chart, Ether “sees either a rally or a short-term pump.”
Fellow trader Yoddha added they are confident that Ether is “getting ready for five figures” despite the ongoing consolidation.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.