U.S. Indices Technical Highlights:
- S&P 500 rising towards a record high resistance line
- Nasdaq 100 lagging behind, keep an eye on this development
- Dow Jones and old school stocks continue to lead the way
Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecast for Days Ahead
The S&P 500 is once again notching new record highs as volatility drops to a new coronavirus era low. The VIX now matches the level seen on Feb 21 2020, the final trading day before panic hit the market the following week.
While all appears well at this time, traders should still remain vigilant. Even if the market is to continue much higher, set-backs are expected to develop along the way. We may be near one such pullback with a steady top-side trend-line coming into focus.
Just over current levels lies a line running higher since October. It might not act as formidable level of resistance, but enough that the market corrects from it. In the event this is the case, I will be watching price action closely.
A consolidation period could do some good for setting up an other good risk/reward long opportunity. The same could be said about a mild pullback, with 3981 and the March trend-line eyed as support levels.
A sharp dive lower may be short-lived, but would suggest more caution is warranted from the long-side, and any attempt to recover would be watched for signs of stalling as the market may be ready for a larger retracement, or worse. For now, though, respecting the trend.
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Check out the Q1 Stock Market Forecast
S&P 500 Daily Chart (watch top-side trend-line)
The Dow Jones is leading the way as old-school stocks continue to generally outperform. On a dip there is support around a slope from June in the vicinity of 32700. Looking higher there isn’t anything to speak of from a resistance standpoint.
Dow Jones Daily Chart (watch slope support on weakness)
The Nasdaq 100 has broadly been a laggard the past few months, but has perked up in recent trade. It’s currently making a run at the old record high of 13879 – it will be interesting to see how that gets handled. The divergence between the indices is worth watching, as it could be indicating early signs of a bull run fracturing. The small-cap Russell 2000 index is also trading below its highs.
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (lagging but trending towards new high)
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX