Bloomberg LP, the financial data and news service, is adding election odds data from crypto betting platform Polymarket to its Terminal, according to an Aug. 29 X post by Michael McDonough, Bloomberg’s chief economist for financial products.
The integration highlights the growing importance of prediction markets in analyzing political trends and election odds. It also underscores the increasing adoption of Web3 by traditional financial institutions.
Bloomberg features Polymarket odds for the United States presidential election outcome alongside data from other prediction markets, such as PredictIt, and polling services, according to the post.
Bloomberg’s terminal is the world’s most popular institutional financial data platform. It controls approximately one-third of the market share for financial data services, according to Wall Street Prep. It has approximately 350,000 subscribers globally.
Bloomberg is adding election odds data from Polymarket. Source: Bloomberg
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Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market built on the Polygon network. It allows users to create and bet on a variety of event outcomes and uses transparent onchain data and smart contracts to facilitate trades and payouts.
Polymarket has emerged as the go-to platform for tracking real-time odds on outcomes for the US elections, with monthly trading volume for August approaching $450 million, according to Dune analytics.
A total of nearly $760 million has been bet on the outcome of the Nov. 4 US presidential election on the platform, according to Polymarket. As of Aug. 29, Republican candidate Donald Trump has slightly more favorable odds than Democrat Kamala Harris, with Trump at 50% and Harris at 48%.
Polymarket faces challenges from rivals such as Solana-based Drift Protocol’s BET platform, which surpassed Polymarket in daily trading volume for the first time on Aug. 29, according to an X post by Solana-focused news account Solana Floor.
In August, Polymarket bettors accurately predicted that independent presidential candidate Robert. F Kennedy Jr. would exit the presidential race before September 2024. Odds surged from 8% to upwards of 90% ahead of RFK Jr.’s Aug. 23 speech, during which he suspended his presidential bid.
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