Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is only 14% below its all-time high at the moment, and favorable conditions have produced targets of over $80,000 in the coming weeks.
Yet, a new all-time high (ATH) of around $100,000 might not be as impressive a feat as imagined when adjusting for inflation.
Adjusting Bitcoin price for inflation (2021 vs. 2024)
Luke Broyles, a Bitcoin analyst, argues that BTC crossing the elusive $100,000 mark will “barely” match BTC’s buying value in 2021. In an X post, Broyles highlights that, if adjusted for inflation, the ATH price from 2021 will be $83,000 at the moment.
Data derived via the U.S. inflation calculator suggests this is fairly accurate. An item bought around $69,000 (assuming people bought BTC at the 2021 top) would currently be priced at $80,159.88, with a current cumulative rate of inflation at 16.2%.
Bitcoin cost in 2021 vs 2024 comparison. Source: US inflation calculator
The US inflation calculator measures the dollar’s buying power over a period of time. Keeping that in mind, Broyles adds,
“By the time we have the next round of printing in the next 6-18 months, it will be $95,000. $100,000 nominal BTC price in 2025 is (quite possibly) barely getting us to 2021 levels.”
Bitcoin eyes $65K for a higher high
BTC price is up 18% over the past 14 days despite September being a historically bearish period. Now, Bitcoin is facing its final test before undergoing a bullish trend shift.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin has been posting lower highs and lower lows on the one-day chart since March 2024.
Now, Bitcoin is currently looking to flip the resistance/supply zone at $65,000, which will lead to a change of character or ChoCH.
Related: Bitcoin weekly RSI sparks ‘intermediate’ $85K BTC price target
If $65K can be flipped into support, the long-term downtrend should undergo a change, and a higher high, higher low pattern will take shape, producing a new uptrend. Immediate resistance above $65,000 resides around $71,500.
Last month, Cointelegraph reported a potential breakout that could happen in September, which may eventually result in a rally toward $86,000.
The price action has played out accordingly so far, as a “megaphone” pattern remains in play for a 34.37% upswing over the next couple of weeks.
Bitcoin megaphone pattern. Source: X.com
The megaphone pattern includes a similar setup of higher highs and lower lows, which can either validate a macro top or macro bottom. At the moment, the price is on the rise, which means Bitcoin is closing in on confirming a bottom and on a potential path to higher prices.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.