Bitcoin (BTC) needs more demand to hit a new all-time high, new research says, as whale accumulation slows to a crawl.
In its latest weekly report seen by Cointelegraph, onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant said that “most” demand metrics currently show weakness.
Bitcoin whales ditch the FOMO
Bitcoin is still not a strong enough buy to attract the kind of investment that could send it to all-time highs.
According to CryptoQuant, larger BTC investors — equated to whales — have slashed the pace at which they accumulate coins since the most recent all-time high in March.
“The 30-day percentage change in whale holdings has decreased from 6% in February—the fastest pace since February 2019—to just 1% currently,” the report reveals.
“Historically, a monthly growth rate of more than 3% in whale holdings has been associated with increasing Bitcoin prices, which is not the case at the moment.”
If whales are not providing the firepower needed for a BTC price breakout, the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are currently an unreliable alternative.
Daily net inflows to the spot ETF products are just a fraction of their March tally, with last week’s daily average coming in at 1,300 BTC.
“A recovery in spot ETF purchases is essential to drive overall Bitcoin demand upward, potentially leading to a corresponding price rally,” CryptoQuant continues.
An exception to the “summer doldrums” the market is facing comes in the form of “permanent holders” — entities only buying and never selling BTC.
Contrary to whales, this cohort has had no qualms about upping BTC exposure.
“Despite slower overall Bitcoin demand growth, permanent holders have continued to accumulate Bitcoin at unprecedented levels,” the report notes.
“The total balance of these holders is growing at a record-high monthly rate of 391K Bitcoin. Demand from permanent holders is increasing even faster than it did in Q1 2024, when the price of Bitcoin exceeded $70K.”
BTC speculators nurse unrealized losses
The cold feet among more speculative investors may be explained by recent price events.
Related: A return to $50K? 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
The trip to six-month lows at the start of August placed a large majority of recent buyers underwater, Cointelegraph reported.
According to data from statistics resource BGeometrics, the cohort’s cost basis is still above the spot price at around $63,000.
BTC/USD traded at around $59,000 at the time of writing on Aug. 20, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, undoing 2.5% overnight gains.
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