Bitcoin (BTC) looks ready to undergo a substantial breakout toward $78,000 in the coming weeks, primarily due to price chart technicals and China’s latest economic stimulus.
Central bank liquidity will boost Bitcoin demand: Analyst
On Sept. 24, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that it would inject around $140 billion of liquidity into the financial system by cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points.
The PBOC has lowered borrowing costs and eased property purchase rules to shore up its struggling real estate market and the wider economy.
Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at investment management firm Real Vision, argues that China’s latest stimulus package is bullish for Bitcoin, pointing out that it would influence other central banks to follow suit.
“The bottom is in for global central bank liquidity for this cycle. Sit back and watch the other CBs fall into line,” he noted, adding:
“In a credit-based fiat fractional reserve system, debasement is a feature, not a bug.”
BTC/USD vs. Big Four central bank balance sheets. Source: Jamie Coutts
The PBOC’s recent stimulus package announcements have preceded huge rallies in risk assets like Bitcoin. For instance, the PBOC injected $367.7 billion through reverse repos in October 2023 and $140 billion by reducing the RRR by 50 basis points in January 2024
Bitcoin’s price rose by over 100% following the stimulus package announcements.
BTC/USD daily price chart ft. Chinese stimulus packages. Source: TradingView
Interestingly, the direct connection between Chinese liquidity and Bitcoin is less obvious due to the 2021 crypto mining ban in China.
However, as Coutts pointed out, Bitcoin’s performance remains closely tied to global liquidity conditions, and China’s easing measures could prompt broader shifts in risk appetite.
Technical analysis: Bull flag breakout eyes $78K
Adding to the bullish outlook is the formation of a bull flag pattern on Bitcoin’s longer-timeframe chart.
A bull flag pattern develops when the price consolidates inside a descending channel range after a strong upside move. As a rule, the pattern resolves when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises as much as the previous uptrend’s height.
Related: ‘History suggests it’s breakout time for Bitcoin’ — Rekt Capital
As of Sept. 24, BTC’s price was testing its flag’s upper trendline for a potential breakout above $78,000—a new record high.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Conversely, a pullback from the upper trendline will likely take the price down toward the lower trendline, aligning with the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement trendline of around $5.
As Cointelegraph reported, BTC may need to rise well above $80,000 to achieve a new all-time high value when adjusted for inflation.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.