Bitcoin is soon to enter what one analyst is calling “batshit season,” which could see the price of BTC surge as high as $150,000 by the end of this year — though others suggest a short-term seller overhang could dent the rally.
In an Aug. 26 post to X, RealVision analyst Jamie Coutts said that “unless something has fundamentally changed,” Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action is still on track to enter “batshit season” also known as the Banana Zone, a term coined by RealVision founder Raoul Paul.
In an attached chart, Coutts noted that in the previous two bull cycles, Bitcoin had notched new respective all-time highs in the 365 days following local US dollar Index peaks.
He suggested that if BTC follows previous bull market patterns, it could surge more than 100% from an approximate price of $64,000 to reach as high as $150,000 by the end of this year.
Bitcoin could rally over 100% if it follows previous cycle trends. Source: Jamie Coutts
However, other analysts aren’t as optimistic in the short term. Pseudonymous CryptoQuant researcher ManagerXBT pointed to high volumes of potential selling pressure for Bitcoin.
Short-term BTC sellers have become active
In an Aug. 27 research note, ManagerXBT noted that large short-term Bitcoin sellers had “become active” and explained that while Bitcoin had staged a successful rally last week, some stagnant metrics had begun showing signs of activity once again.
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“Short-term holders transferred 33,155 Bitcoin as shown by the 1w-1m spent output age bands. This could present immediate selling pressure. The slowdown in price suggests that Bitcoin might initiate a free pullback,” wrote ManagerXBT.
Short-term holders transferred 33,155 Bitcoin in recent weeks. Source: CryptoQuant
He advised “extra caution” if these figures were to increase in the coming days, adding that a potential sell-off could become more intense.
On Aug. 23, Bitcoin’s price gained 6.2% and has since held steady above the $63,000 support level.
Despite this price action, many Bitcoin derivatives traders have yet to flip bullish, indicating skepticism about the recent move upward.
The Bitcoin futures premium — a key indicator of risk appetite for derivatives — has stagnated at around 6% for the last month. This indicates that many professional traders remain cautious about opening leveraged long positions.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
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