Key Takeaways
- People are still moving out of the largest metro areas across the country at higher rates than before the pandemic, according to new U.S. Census data.
- Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent note that the data showed the largest urban areas experienced smaller-than-average population growth from 2019 through 2023.
- Remote work remains a key factor, with people choosing to live away from places where they are tethered to an office space.
- Population growth outside the largest urban areas has led to somewhat faster house-price appreciation there since the pandemic versus in the most-urban counties, but this may be tied to changes in preference for larger houses outside big cities.
Americans are still moving away from the biggest cities across the country, continuing a trend that began with the rise of remote work during the pandemic, according to a new report analyzing Census data by analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS).
Counties in the highest tier of urbanization, in or near cities with 1 million or more residents, recorded average population growth about 1% below pre-pandemic levels from 2019 through mid-2023, the analysts noted.
While those counties had “started experiencing modest net domestic out-migration of about 200k on average in the three years leading up to the pandemic,” the analysts wrote, an estimated 750,000, 650,000, and 550,000 domestic migrants left the biggest U.S. cities in each of 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively.
The report said that stronger population growth outside the largest urban counties has meant somewhat faster house-price appreciation relative to pre-pandemic trends when compared with the most urban counties.
The post-pandemic migration trend is likely connected to changes in housing preferences—more people say in surveys that they would prefer larger, more spread-out homes—though the trend toward larger homes is longstanding in the U.S.
Remote Work Still a Key Factor
Thanks to the rise of remote work arrangements during the pandemic, millions of Americans fled large cities for other areas with lower costs of living, and new Census data discloses that that trend hasn’t slowed or reversed to the degree many thought it would after pandemic restrictions were lifted.
After nearing 50% of Americans working remotely at the height of the pandemic, the level has plateaued to the mid-20% range, yet still about 10 times as high as the 2% to 3% of Americans who did so before the pandemic.