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Key Takeaways
- S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates by less than is normal and at a below-average rate so far this earnings season, according to a FactSet Research analysis.
- Last week’s Big Tech earnings boosted the index’s aggregate earnings growth to more than 5% from 3.6% the prior week.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) demand will remain in focus this week when Palantir, Qualcomm, and Arista Networks report their results.
Third-quarter earnings season enters the home stretch this week. The quarter appears to have been mixed for corporate America, with companies broadly beating estimates while scaling back fourth-quarter guidance.
Three-quarters of the companies that had reported earnings as of Friday night had beaten earnings estimates, just below the five-year average of 77%, according to FactSet Research. In aggregate, the index has topped expectations by 4.6%, also below the average.
On the plus side, last week was better than those that came before it. The index as of Friday had reported earnings growth of 5.1%, up from 3.6% a week earlier. Earnings got a boost from better-than-expected results from Alphabet (GOOG; GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC), both of which missed earnings estimates, were a drag on growth.
Alphabet and Meta have made the Communications Services sector the fastest-growing sector in the S&P 500, with earnings up more than 20% from last year. Excluding the tech giants, the sector’s earnings growth falls to about 7%. But even at that rate, it would still be the index’s third-fastest- growing sector, behind just Health Care and Consumer Discretionary.
The energy sector has been the worst-performing sector so far. Profit is down more than 25% from a year ago, the largest decline of any sector. Three of five sub-industries have reported lower earnings: Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing (-81%), Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-15%), and Integrated Oil & Gas (-13%).
Companies are being more cautious with their earnings outlooks than Wall Street expected. Of the 55 companies that have forecast fourth-quarter earnings, about 67% have issued guidance below the Street’s consensus.
AI Remains in Focus With Palantir, Qualcomm Earnings Ahead
About one-fifth of the S&P 500 is slated to report this week, after which less than 10% of the index will be left to announce results.
This week’s marquee earnings include several companies with AI stories, including one of the index’s newest components: Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which reports after the closing bell on Monday. The company is expected to report double-digit sales and earnings growth in the quarter.
Chip giant Qualcomm (QCOM) is scheduled to report Wednesday afternoon. The results could be an indication of demand for AI devices, an area that Qualcomm is pursuing with its own AI chips. Qualcomm stock is up about 15% since the start of the year.
Arista Networks (ANET), which develops and sells computer networking equipment to data-center and cloud computing clients, is set to report Thursday afternoon. Tech giants Microsoft and Amazon last week said that demand for AI and cloud computing is so strong that they’re having trouble keeping up with it. Arista’s earnings are expected to reflect the strength of that demand. Arista Networks shares have risen nearly 70% so far this year.