Will Hurricanes Mar Biden’s Economic Legacy?

The aftermath of hurricanes Milton and Helene could break the U.S. economy’s job creation winning streak, spoiling what would otherwise be a historic accomplishment for President Joe Biden.

The U.S. economy has added jobs every month Biden has been in office, and if that streak continues through January, Biden would be the first president to never preside over a month where the economy lost jobs. However, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October because of the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics downwardly revises that figure in the coming months, it could easily result in a negative figure, breaking Biden’s streak.

Biden has pointed to his administration’s record on job growth as evidence of the success of his economic policies and that of Democratic presidents in general, who have historically outperformed their Republican counterparts when it comes to job creation during their tenures.

The job slowdown in October doesn’t point to any real weakness in the economy, since it’s just a temporary effect of the hurricanes, but a negative figure would take away a talking point for Democrats when evaluating the Biden administration’s legacy.

What Do Jobs Report Revisions Look Like?

The bureau regularly revises its monthly jobs figures to incorporate data that they didn’t have when they made the initial report. Each monthly jobs report is revised twice over two months and again at the end of the year when the bureau incorporates data from unemployment insurance tax records.

However, the outlook for October revisions is murky because of the impact of the hurricanes, which disrupted the job market and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data collection efforts. Fewer people than usual in October answered the surveys used to create the jobs report, the bureau said in a press release.

When all is said and done, an upward revision is more likely than a downward one,  Cory Stahle, an economist at the hiring lab of job hunting site Indeed told Investopedia in an interview.

“There were people who just did not get their surveys in because they were dealing with evacuations and the storms,” Stahle said. “Historically, the revisions from storm activity are almost always positive.”

Still, it wouldn’t take much to turn October’s positive number negative. Downward revisions to past reports are common and are usually well over 12,000 when they do happen. For example, on Friday, the bureau downwardly revised the job creation figures for September and August by a combined 112,000.