Bitcoin’s current rally may be part of a wider bet on former President Donald Trump’s victory, which could lead to a “sell the news” event after the election.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price rose above $73,600 on Oct. 29 reaching its highest level since March 2024, just $200 shy of a new all-time high.
BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph
While Bitcoin is seemingly correlated with Trump’s rising odds of a presidential election victory, it doesn’t necessarily imply a sustained post-election rally.
Bitcoin is used as a proxy for a potential Trump victory, according to pseudonymous crypto analyst, “The Giver,” who wrote in an Oct. 30 X post:
“The direction of the election does not drive a price-dependent outcome; rather Bitcoin is currently being used as a liquid proxy to hedge a Trump win.”
The prediction comes just days before the US presidential election on Nov. 5, which has become a focal point for crypto investors. The election outcome could influence crypto regulations and market movements until 2028.
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Bitcoin’s October gains: Trump pump or proxy?
Bitcoin’s October rally seems correlated with Trump’s rising election odds on the world’s leading decentralized predictions market, Polymarket.
On Oct. 16, Bitcoin price reached a two-and-a-half-month high above $68,200 as Trump’s odds of a victory rose to a record high of 60.2%, while Harris’ slid to 39.8%.
On Oct. 28, Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 for the first time since June 10 as Trump’s odds of winning the election surpassed 66.3%.
BTC/USD chart and Polymarket odds, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph and Polymarket
However, this correlation does not mean that Trump’s rising odds are driving Bitcoin’s price. The Giver noted that there is growing conviction around a previously “underpriced” Trump victory:
“Consensus is viewing ‘the Trump trade’ incorrectly; the effect is not causation where increasing Trump odds linearly creates a vacuum for BTC to perform, but rather the basket of assets that have gone up this month reflect a Trump win having being underpriced entering the month.”
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Macroeconomic conditions are “insufficient” for a post-election all-time high
Despite bullish Bitcoin price action, macroeconomic conditions are still insufficient to nudge the crypto industry to a new all-time high.
The analyst explained:
“Easing conditions” present today for manufacturing a new TOTAL-high is insufficient. The correlation of rates and other popular heuristics to faction liquidity is much weaker than popular rhetoric suggests, with signs pointing toward price ultimately being suppressed rather than price discovery.”
Bitcoin price vs. M2 Money Supply. Source: The Giver
Quantitative easing refers to monetary policy where a central bank purchases a predetermined amount of government bonds to stimulate economic activity through liquidity injections.
Liquidity injections from central banks often boost Bitcoin’s price, by encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets.
Others are more optimistic about Bitcoin’s post-election prospects. Notably, Bitfinex analysts predict a Bitcoin rally to $80,000 before the end of 2024, driven by the options market structure and the prospect of a Republican presidential victory.
Harris vs. Trump 2024: What’s at Stake for the Crypto Market? Source: YouTube
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