Technology luminary Elon Musk recently sparked a wave of interest in the decentralized predictions market Polymarket after the billionaire said the site could more accurately predict the results of the 2024 United States presidential election than traditional polling.
Musk’s comments came on the X social media platform, which he currently owns. Over the past few months, the billionaire has increasingly thrown his support behind US presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump.
Recently, in a speech given during a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, Musk gave a speech supporting Trump.
Polymarket
According to Polymarket, as of the time of Musk’s post on Oct. 6, Trump was leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by a margin of about three percentage points.
Elon Musk claims Polymarket is more accurate than traditional polling in a social media post. Source: Elon Musk
“Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”
Polymarket is a decentralized predictions market that allows users to stake USD Coin (USDC) on the outcome of an event.
As Cointelegraph recently reported, the US presidential election has been the most active event in the site’s history. Some analysts have even referred to the growing popularity of prediction markets as a public good.
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It’s unclear at this point how “accurate” Polymarket will be when it comes to the 2024 US presidential election.
While Musk and some analysts opine that backing their predictions with money incentivizes a more accurate market, there’s also an argument to be made that predicting a financial winner isn’t necessarily analogous to a person’s political persuasions.
A person could, for example, pledge to vote for one candidate despite predicting or even betting that their opposition will ultimately emerge victorious.
In related news, Polymarket activity surrounding the identity of the creator of Bitcoin (BTC), the legendary Satoshi Nakamoto, appears to have reached a fever pitch leading up to HBO’s Oct. 8 reveal.
As of the time of this article’s publication, the total pool has reached nearly $400,000, with deceased American computer scientist Len Sassaman leading by a large margin.
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