After ‘Jumbo’ Rate Cut, This Fed Official is Pumping The Brakes on Expectations

Just because the Federal Reserve made a steeper interest rate cut last week than many expected, don’t count on central bankers to keep delivering sizable rate cuts, one central banker said Thursday.

Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said in a speech Thursday at a bankers’ conference that economic conditions may not permit Fed officials to cut the influential federal funds rate at the pace some investors are anticipating.

Last week, Bowman voted against the Fed’s decision to reduce interest rates, arguing that the half-percentage-point move was too large, though she agreed it was time to cut. 

Bowman Says Inflation Still ‘Uncomfortably’ High

Bowman said inflation was “uncomfortably” above its target while the labor market was still near full employment.

“Although the labor market data have been showing signs of cooling in recent months, still-elevated wage growth, solid consumer spending, and resilient GDP growth are not consistent with a material economic weakening or fragility,” Bowman said.

Markets Price in 50% Chance of Another Big Cut

Bowman said a bigger rate cut could signal to markets that the economy is weaker than it looked or that additional “jumbo”-size cuts may be coming down the pike.

She said rates won’t need to be cut as steeply as some investors have priced in. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data, traders are pricing in about a 50% chance of a half-point cut in the next meeting in November.

In their latest economic projections, Fed officials have forecast a quarter-percentage point cut at that meeting, another in the December meeting and a full percentage point of rate cuts next year.

Kugler Anticipates More Interest Rate Cuts

While investors may be pricing in more than central bankers expect to cut, another Fed official reiterated that cuts are still on the way.

At a separate speaking event at Harvard University, Federal Reserve Gov. Adriana Kugler said the central bank’s move to lower interest rates would prevent “unnecessary pain and weakness” in the economy as price pressures continued to ease.

“If progress on inflation continues as I expect, I will support additional cuts in the federal funds rate going forward,” she said. 

While several Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, delivered remarks today, only Bowman and Kugler addressed interest rates and the economy. Powell will speak next Monday at an economic conference, where his remarks could include discussions on the Fed’s path for interest rates.