Oil-rich nations are slowing progress on UN climate pact, say negotiators

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Oil-rich nations are making a concerted effort to slow progress on a landmark UN climate agreement to end the use of fossil fuels, according to western nations taking part in global climate change talks. 

Negotiators from five western countries told the Financial Times that they were applying pressure to Azerbaijan as the host country for the upcoming UN COP29 summit to prioritise fossil fuel phaseout discussions, in an attempt to counter a “pushback” from the petrostates and their allies.

At COP28 in Dubai last December, almost 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems by 2050 and to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.

But the negotiators said that a group of countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Bolivia — which have historically proved a block to any global agreement to phase out the use of fossil fuels — were yet again frustrating progress.

Azerbaijan, which is heavily reliant on oil and gas exports economically, is seen as reluctant to champion a further shift away from oil and gas.

One negotiator from a major western country said that “there’s clearly pushback by some countries” in discussions about the fossil fuels agreement.

“We’re having to be very clear with Azerbaijan that this COP won’t be a success if we don’t also talk about the process of implementing mitigation, including the COP28 decision,” they said.

An EU official said the bloc had also made its concerns known to Baku about the lack of progress on the COP28 agreement. “We confirmed [with Azerbaijan that] it’s very important we are able to pursue work on the Dubai consensus and we will ensure that this is part of the conversation.”

A negotiator from another western country added: “At this stage, it looks extremely bleak and there’s a real risk that large emitters within the G77 [group of developing nations] will use the difficult finance negotiations to block any meaningful progress on mitigation.”

At this year’s COP29, to be held in November, countries are due to agree on a new global goal for climate finance, with nations clashing about how much this should be, who pays and its structure. At the weekend, African governments called for more than £1tn a year in climate finance. 

Oil and natural gas brings in about 90 per cent of Azerbaijan’s export revenues, and finances about 60 per cent of its budget, according to International Energy Agency figures.

Earlier this month, Baku’s lead climate negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev gave a seven-page speech about recent talks between countries at a retreat in Azerbaijan but did not explicitly mention fossil fuels or renewable energy.

Rafiyev said it was “crucial to emphasise the importance of mitigation”, the process of reducing or preventing the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as opposed to reducing the burning of fossil fuels.

The absence of any specific mention of fossil fuels or renewable energy in the speech “reveals a startling ignorance and an inexcusable failure of leadership from Azerbaijan”, said Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, which is an observer group at COP.

The UAE COP28 presidency said it “maintains a relentless focus on implementing” the Dubai agreement, formally called the UAE Consensus, including holding discussions on the energy transition in Berlin earlier this year. It said it was “also working tirelessly with the G7 and G20”.

The Azeri COP29 presidency said its leadership “has repeatedly stressed the importance of making progress on mitigation, which includes, among other things, the transition away from fossil fuels”.

It said it was making “every effort to drive the parties towards common ground and inclusive outcomes”.

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman described the COP29 agreement as an “à la carte menu” of options rather than being prescriptive.