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Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats had a successful convention this week in Chicago. At every juncture, they sought to rebut the attacks from their opponents. The Harris-Walz team argued over and over, and particularly effectively, I thought, in the vice president’s Thursday night speech, that they were for national unity, against ideology, for the middle class, for women and most of all for the United States.
Even a casual observer couldn’t help but notice that there was very little in Vice President Harris’ speech that added up to an agenda for the United States or even policy prescriptions. The strategists behind the Harris-Walz ticket understand that, on issues, they could very easily lose to former President Donald Trump. But on life story, aspiration and symbolism, it is much more likely that the Democrats will turn what was a once a possible defeat with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket into a potential victory with Kamala Harris.
The Democratic convention has been characterized this week as one of great vibes and the politics of joy and Harris herself was able to rise to the occasion Thursday night. She gave voters, of all parties and ideologies, a sense that she stood with them and for them, in contrast to an aging, out-of-touch Donald Trump who, in her telling, stood specifically and principally with billionaires.
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Both the vice president and her surrogates were strong. They set out to strike a patriotic tone and to reassure the electorate in stalwart terms that they would stand with our allies in Europe and Ukraine (and perhaps not Israel). Harris and her advocates made it very clear that while they stood for and with the middle class, most importantly, their goal was to accentuate and exacerbate the gender gap by making this convention largely for and about women.
It seems clear that the Harris-Walz ticket will get a modest bump from the very well-produced and executed Democratic convention in Chicago. The vice president is likely to go into the fall campaign with a narrow but clear lead over former President Trump both nationally and most likely in a majority of the swing states.
Elections are ultimately a referendum on the incumbent. We will see, in the Sept. 10 debate between the vice president and the former president, whether Harris is able to escape stigmatization over the perceived failures of the now fading current president.
But make no mistake, it would be wrong to believe that the overall direction of this race has been fundamentally changed or altered by the four-day spectacle that the Democrats were able to produce. For as many people who were uplifted by the event, few saw or heard anything that would fundamentally distinguish the Democratic ticket on the issues American voters care deeply about: inflation, the cost of living, immigration and crime. There wasn’t enough substance offered to build a significant contrast to former President Trump.
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The convention began with Joe Biden, the incumbent president, having an approval rating at or below 40 percent. Despite the successful convention, Biden’s approval rating almost certainly did not budge at all this week. I say that because elections are ultimately a referendum on the incumbent. We will see, in the Sept. 10 debate between the vice president and the former president, whether Harris is able to escape stigmatization over the perceived failures of the now fading current president.
Despite what the national media is likely to say now, and following the inevitable post-convention bump in political support that the Democratic ticket will receive, this election is likely to remain very close. As close as the previous presidential elections were in 2016 and 2020.
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We will not really have a clear sense of the direction the 2024 presidential campaign is heading until the polls come in after the Sept. 10 Harris-Trump debate. But even then, keep in mind that Trump has always done much better in elections than he does in pre-election polls. What many in the liberal media may describe as the inevitability of Harris-Walz could well be, and is much more likely to be, a repeat of the last two national elections. In other words, following their convention, a victory for Democrats is not assured. Instead, this election will be very close.
The major question facing Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans now is whether they can successfully recalibrate the campaign to be as effective in their critiques of Vice President Harris as they were of the current president.
Our recent presidential elections have been decided ultimately by a swing of less than 100,000 votes. The same is likely to happen in 2024, notwithstanding the national media’s seeming embrace of the Harris-Walz ticket and the likely election to the presidency, in their minds, of the current vice president.
Both parties had successful conventions this summer. This week in Chicago, Harris was able to address in general terms, most, if not all of her negatives: being too far left, being polarizing, not having a record, being soft on immigration and crime. It is clear that she will continue in this vein for the rest of the campaign.
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The major question facing Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans now is whether they can successfully recalibrate the campaign to be as effective in their critiques of Vice President Harris as they were of the current president. That is the big unanswered question as we go forward into the traditional start of the presidential election campaign on Labor Day.
The bottom line: The politics of joy is not necessarily the politics of victory.