In the two or so weeks since becoming the anointed and appointed one, Kamala Harris has all but erased Donald Trump’s national lead.
She’s also enjoying real momentum in the swing states.
Last week, I said we would have to wait until this week before we could begin to understand the impact Joe Biden’s decision to drop out would have on the 2024 presidential race. Further, we would see how the Democrat Party (and corporate media, but I repeat myself) all but crowning Kamala the nominee impacted the polls.
Well, now we know, and what we know is that former President Trump went from coasting to an easy victory to what is now a statistically tied race where Harris might still be on the rise, which means she could soon be in the lead.
When His Fraudulency Joe Biden dropped out of the race two weeks ago, in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of national polls, Trump enjoyed a stubborn and steady lead over Biden of 3.1 points—47.9 to 44.8 percent. Trump’s lead was also climbing then, as was his ceiling of support that leapt from 45 points to 48 points in six weeks.
Against Harris, Trump’s lead has evaporated to just 1.2 points—47.7 to 46.5 percent.
Per the RCP average poll of national polls in a five-way race, Trump enjoyed a 4.2-point lead over Biden—43.4 to 39.2 percent with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sitting at 8.7 points.
Against Harris in a five-way poll, Trump’s lead is all but gone at less than a half-point—0.3 percent. Benefitting Harris, apparently, is disaffected-by-Biden Democrats leaving from RFK Jr. and returning to the fold. RFK Jr.’s support with Biden in the race sat at 8.7 points. With Harris in the race, he is down to 5.9.
The news is not much better in the swing states that will decide the election.
Here are the average numbers two-way/five-way…
In Arizona, Trump’s lead has shrunk from an average of 5.8 points/7.7 points to 4.2 points/2.0 points
In Nevada, Trump’s lead has shrunk from an average of 5.6 points/5.0 points to 4.0 points/tie
In Wisconsin, Trump’s lead has shrunk from 2.9 points/2.9 points to just 0.2 points/0.3 points.
In Michigan, Trump’s lead has lost his lead. He had been up by 2.1/1.8 points. Harris now leads by 2.0/2.7 points.
In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead has shrunk from 4.5 points to 2.7 points. In a five-way race, Harris leads by 0.2 points.
North Carolina is holding pretty steady. Against Biden, Trump had a 5.7-point two-way lead and a 7.0-point five-way lead. Against Harris, his lead sits at 5.5 two-way. There is not enough five-way polling yet.
Georgia should worry Trump. Against Biden, that state looked pretty safe, 3.8/4.0. The Harris averages are a little off due to one outlier poll, but recent polling basically shows a tied race between Trump and Harris.
The question is what is Kamala’s ceiling? When does her momentum top out? What plans do the Trump-Vance 2024 campaign have to blunt this momentum?
Currently, the corporate media are running a two-phased campaign to elect this failed radical. The first is the Obama “celebrity-make-history” campaign. The second is the Biden 2020 basement campaign, where she hides from the media.
So far, it’s working, but we have a long way to go, and Donald Trump is not John McCain.
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John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.