Fed Minutes Show Officials See Inflation Slowing, Economy Cooling

In June, policymakers at the Federal Reserve discussed some of the conditions under which they would consider cutting interest rates, newly released minutes from the central bank’s most recent meeting show.

In the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last month, officials held the central bank’s key interest rate steady at its 23-year high. They also released economic projections that showed, on average, that policymakers expect to cut interest rates at least once this year.

However, the minutes show that while FOMC members agreed to be patient, some said the central bank should be ready to respond in the event of economic weakness.

Officials Put Emphasis on Jobs Data

Some Federal Reserve officials at the meeting pointed to an increasingly better balance between the central bank’s dual mandate of promoting full employment and fighting inflation, requiring officials to be more mindful of jobs data than in the past.

“A number of participants noted that, although the labor market remained strong, the ratio of vacancies to unemployment had returned to pre-pandemic levels and there was some risk that further cooling in labor market conditions could be associated with an increased pace of layoffs,” the minutes said. 

The Fed’s emphasis on the labor market shows officials are focused on the timing of rate cuts, wrote Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics.

“One or two rate cuts this year would keep monetary policy restrictive but reduce the risk that rates are too restrictive for too long,” Sweet wrote. “If the Fed waits until the labor market shows visible signs of fissures, the Fed is behind the curve and potentially too late.”